TY - UNPB
T1 - Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates
AU - Sridharan, Sanjeev
AU - Vujić, Sunčica
AU - Koopman, Siem Jan
N1 - ID number: 2003-040/4
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni- variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.
AB - The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni- variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.
UR - http://www.tinbergen.nl/ti-publications/discussion-papers.php?paper=398
M3 - Discussion paper
BT - Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates
PB - Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
CY - Rotterdam, The Netherlands
ER -
