Insights into Spatial Heterogeneity of Land Subsidence Susceptibility Using InSAR and Explainable Machine Learning

Land subsidence (LS) is a widespread geoenvironmental problem driven by both natural processes and human activities. Identifying the main factors controlling LS susceptibility and their spatial contribution patterns is essential for LS management and mitigation. In this study, an interpretable earth observation framework was developed for the North China Plain (NCP) to quantify both spatial and non-spatial contributions of dominant LS drivers. Land displacement was derived from Sentinel-1A SAR images using Multi-Temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (MT-InSAR) processing. The displacement map was then combined with nine geoenvironmental variables to construct an LS susceptibility model using the eXtreme Gradient-Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The model performed well, with an R2 of 0.96, an EVS of 0.96, and an MAE of 2.25 mm/yr. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to quantify feature contributions and their effects on LS susceptibility. The results show that a deep groundwater level (DGL) was the dominant factor, followed by elevation and a shallow groundwater level (SGL). The effect of DGL was strongest when it ranged from −75 to 20 m. Elevation showed a clear effect on LS occurrence when values fall between 30 and 50 m. Relatively high subsidence sensitivity was mainly observed in areas where SGL was below −7 m. Interaction effects, particularly those between DGL and elevation and between DGL and SGL, further increased LS susceptibility in specific areas. The highest predicted susceptibility occurred in areas with DGL below −20 m and elevations below 30 m. Higher susceptibility was also identified where DGL was high and SGL ranged between −20 and −10 m, and where DGL was low and SGL ranged from 15 to 20 m. In contrast, factors such as slope and aspect had limited influence at the regional scale. The contributions of the predominant factors show obvious marginal effects and significant spatial heterogeneity to LS susceptibility. The results clarify where and how key factors shape subsidence and can inform targeted mitigation measures and urban planning by local authorities.