Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Regional New Quality Productive Forces in China

Haoyang Lu; Alistair Hunt

doi:10.3390/urbansci9060189

Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Regional New Quality Productive Forces in China

Haoyang Lu, Alistair Hunt

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

In the context of China’s strategic push toward high-quality development, the concept of new quality productive forces (NQPF)—which emphasizes technological innovation, green transformation, and digital upgrading—has received a lot of attention. However, the increasing volatility and ambiguity in climate-related policymaking present a serious institutional challenge. This study addresses the underexplored question of how climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects the regional development of NQPF in China. Unlike traditional productivity, NQPF relies on long-term innovation and sustainable investment, which are highly sensitive to external policy signals. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2021, this paper uses fixed-effects regressions to empirically assess the influence of CPU on NQPF. The findings reveal that CPU significantly suppresses the development of NQPF, but this effect is mitigated by financial inclusion, carbon market participation, and strong local government sustainability performance. This paper provides new insight into the risks posed by climate uncertainty to economic development and highlights institutional tools that can buffer its negative effects.

Original language	English
Article number	189
Journal	Urban Science
Volume	9
Issue number	6
Early online date	26 May 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9060189
Publication status	Published - 30 Jun 2025

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article; further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Funding

This paper receives funding from the China Scholarship Council and the APC was funded by University of Bath Institutional Open Access Fund.

Funders	Funder number
China Scholarship Council

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

carbon market
climate policy uncertainty
inclusive finance
new quality productive forces

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geography, Planning and Development
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Waste Management and Disposal
Urban Studies
Pollution

Access to Document

10.3390/urbansci9060189Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Regional New Quality Productive Forces in China",

abstract = "In the context of China{\textquoteright}s strategic push toward high-quality development, the concept of new quality productive forces (NQPF)—which emphasizes technological innovation, green transformation, and digital upgrading—has received a lot of attention. However, the increasing volatility and ambiguity in climate-related policymaking present a serious institutional challenge. This study addresses the underexplored question of how climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects the regional development of NQPF in China. Unlike traditional productivity, NQPF relies on long-term innovation and sustainable investment, which are highly sensitive to external policy signals. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2021, this paper uses fixed-effects regressions to empirically assess the influence of CPU on NQPF. The findings reveal that CPU significantly suppresses the development of NQPF, but this effect is mitigated by financial inclusion, carbon market participation, and strong local government sustainability performance. This paper provides new insight into the risks posed by climate uncertainty to economic development and highlights institutional tools that can buffer its negative effects.",

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T1 - Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Regional New Quality Productive Forces in China

AU - Lu, Haoyang

AU - Hunt, Alistair

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N2 - In the context of China’s strategic push toward high-quality development, the concept of new quality productive forces (NQPF)—which emphasizes technological innovation, green transformation, and digital upgrading—has received a lot of attention. However, the increasing volatility and ambiguity in climate-related policymaking present a serious institutional challenge. This study addresses the underexplored question of how climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects the regional development of NQPF in China. Unlike traditional productivity, NQPF relies on long-term innovation and sustainable investment, which are highly sensitive to external policy signals. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2021, this paper uses fixed-effects regressions to empirically assess the influence of CPU on NQPF. The findings reveal that CPU significantly suppresses the development of NQPF, but this effect is mitigated by financial inclusion, carbon market participation, and strong local government sustainability performance. This paper provides new insight into the risks posed by climate uncertainty to economic development and highlights institutional tools that can buffer its negative effects.

AB - In the context of China’s strategic push toward high-quality development, the concept of new quality productive forces (NQPF)—which emphasizes technological innovation, green transformation, and digital upgrading—has received a lot of attention. However, the increasing volatility and ambiguity in climate-related policymaking present a serious institutional challenge. This study addresses the underexplored question of how climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects the regional development of NQPF in China. Unlike traditional productivity, NQPF relies on long-term innovation and sustainable investment, which are highly sensitive to external policy signals. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2021, this paper uses fixed-effects regressions to empirically assess the influence of CPU on NQPF. The findings reveal that CPU significantly suppresses the development of NQPF, but this effect is mitigated by financial inclusion, carbon market participation, and strong local government sustainability performance. This paper provides new insight into the risks posed by climate uncertainty to economic development and highlights institutional tools that can buffer its negative effects.

KW - carbon market

KW - climate policy uncertainty

KW - inclusive finance

KW - new quality productive forces

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105009108261

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DO - 10.3390/urbansci9060189

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ER -

Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Regional New Quality Productive Forces in China

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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