Identifying bank run signals through sociological factors: An empirical research in the geneva area

Swiss financial institutions are renowned worldwide for their financial stability and the high quality of the services they provide. However, the current subprime crisis has heavily affected the two main Swiss banks, i.e., the Credit Suisse and the UBS. The UBS bank has registered remarkable losses, notoriously in its overseas investments. The price of its shares (UBS N. Zurich) has fallen by about 66% from July 2007 to July 2008 (source: SWX Swiss Exchange AG, http://www.swx.com). Among others, this has led to the resignation of the UBS President, Mr. Marcel Ospel. To keep Swiss households and small-and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) confident in the UBS, in May 2008, the bank sent letters (see Appendix 1) to 2.5 million of its Swiss customers (Gumy, 2008). The aim of these letters was to reassure customers and avoid the eventual risk of a bank run within the national borders. Credit Suisse shares (CSGN, Zurich) are currently quoted at approximately 36% less than 1 year ago (July 2007) (source: SWX Swiss Exchange AG, http://www.swx.com).