Abstract
Lightning strikes, snow, and wind are common causes of power system failures. Their frequency of occurrence varies depending on weather patterns and seasons. Here, we analyse the occurrence of thirty pre-defined daily weather patterns along with nearly 70,000 power system failures in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2019 to investigate the predictability of weather-induced power outages. We identify high-risk weather patterns and pattern transitions for all seasons. Winter weather patterns characterized by high wind speeds and high precipitation volumes are responsible for many instances of power outages caused by wind, gale, and lightning strikes. Weather patterns with moderate to high snowfall are often linked to power outages caused by snow and ice. Because high-risk weather patterns can be forecast reliably with valuable lead time, clear links between specific patterns and transitions can significantly improve the preparedness of the United Kingdom and broader European distribution network operators for adverse weather conditions.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 49 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Volume | 5 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Early online date | 23 Jan 2024 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 23 Jan 2024 |
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Energy Networks Association and its member organizations for providing their NaFIRS data, as well as Northern Powergrid and Scottish Power Networks for providing their regional NaFIRS data. We would also like to thank Dr. Sam Harrison for the original code to extend the weather pattern record to the present and the reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions which helped us to improve the quality of our manuscript.Funding
This research was supported by the UK EPSRC under the auspices of the “Supergen Energy Networks Hub” project, grant number EP/S00078X/2.