Abstract
Design flood estimates in the UK are routinely obtained by using the improved Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) statistical procedure. This paper presents a practical framework for assessing the uncertainty associated with estimates of the index flood (QMED) obtained for a range of commonly encountered problems: the gauged, the ungauged and the sparsely gauged catchment. An assessment is presented of the uncertainty of design flood estimates when estimated at ungauged catchments for a range of return periods. The results show that the inclusion of data from nearby gauged catchments increases the reliability of the estimates when compared to an automated application of the improved FEH methods relying on catchment descriptors only.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 237-246 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 14 Jan 2014 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 30 Sept 2015 |
Keywords
- Flood risk
- uncertainty
- flood frequency estimation
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Thomas Kjeldsen
- Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering - Reader
- Water Innovation and Research Centre (WIRC)
- EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Statistical Applied Mathematics (SAMBa)
- Institute for Mathematical Innovation (IMI)
- Centre for Regenerative Design & Engineering for a Net Positive World (RENEW)
- Centre for Climate Adaptation & Environment Research (CAER)
Person: Research & Teaching, Core staff, Affiliate staff