Genetic signatures of coancestry within surnames

Surnames are cultural markers of shared ancestry within human populations. The Y chromosome, like many surnames, is paternally inherited, so men sharing surnames might be expected to share similar Y chromosomes as a signature of coancestry. Such a relationship could be used to connect branches of family trees, to validate population genetic studies based on isonymy, and to predict surname from crime-scene samples in forensics. However, the link may be weak or absent due to multiple independent founders for many names, adoptions, name changes and nonpaternities, and mutation of Y haplotypes. Here, rather than focusing on a single name, we take a general approach by seeking evidence for a link in a sample of 150 randomly ascertained pairs of males who each share a British surname. We show that sharing a surname significantly elevates the probability of sharing a Y-chromosomal haplotype and that this probability increases as surname frequency decreases. Within our sample, we estimate that up to 24% of pairs share recent ancestry and that a large surname-based forensic database might contribute to the intelligence-led investigation of up to approximately 70 rapes and murders per year in the UK. This approach would be applicable to any society that uses patrilineal surnames of reasonable time-depth.