Fragility curves for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on transport networks

Karlo Martinović, Cormac Reale, Kenneth Gavin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Citations (SciVal)


Many of the earthworks assets on rail transport networks were constructed in the 1800s and have thus operated for periods far in excess of their expected service life. Incidences of failure — particularly shallow planar landslides — are increasing, in part due to the effect of more intense and longer duration rainfall events. Network owners have difficulty in targeting scarce resources to reduce risk across networks. This paper proposes a methodology for developing fragility curves for rainfallinduced landslides on transport networks. Fragility curves provide the probability of exceedance of different limit states for a given hazard considering a range of magnitudes. In this paper, the vulnerability of slopes as expressed by a loss of performance is quantified for rainfall events of various intensities and duration. The approach expands upon probabilistic slope stability analysis and provides a rational logical framework for considering how vulnerable a slope is to rainfall-induced failure.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)852-861
Number of pages10
JournalCanadian Geotechnical Journal
Issue number6
Early online date26 Oct 2017
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jun 2018


  • Fragility curves
  • Probabilistic analysis
  • Rainfall
  • Shallow landslides
  • Transport
  • Vulnerability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering


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