Forecast decisions

Paul Goodwin, Brent Moritz, Enno Siemsen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

Demand forecasts are the key input to many crucial planning tasks, yet such forecasts are strongly and frequently influenced by human judgment. This chapter reviews and summarizes research on behavioral aspects of forecasting, including aspects of both individual decision-making and organizational decision-making. In particular, this chapter highlights some of the difficulties and assumptions inherent to the task. It discusses point forecasting, estimating uncertainty, and forecasting within and between organizations. It provides an overview of research on improving judgmental forecasting, including providing feedback and guidance to forecasters, specific elicitation methods, group-based forecasting methods, and interaction with statistical forecasts. Future research opportunities include methods for incorporating promotions into forecasts, mitigating algorithm aversion, and including organizational stakeholder perspectives and practices such as sales and operations planning.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe Handbook of Behavioral Operations
EditorsK. Donohue, E. Katok, S. Leider
Place of PublicationHoboken, U. S. A.
PublisherWiley
Pages433-458
Number of pages26
ISBN (Electronic)9781119138341
ISBN (Print)9781119138303
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jan 2019

Publication series

NameWiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science

Keywords

  • Analytics
  • Behavioral forecasting
  • Demand forecasts
  • Point estimates
  • Sales and operations planning
  • Statistical methods
  • System neglect
  • Time series analysis
  • Uncertainty judgment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)

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