Flexible Planning of Integrated Energy Systems under Long-term Uncertainties

Considering the operational flexibility and planning flexibility of IES, this paper proposes a novel planning method to incorporate the demand-side long term uncertainty. The multi-energy demand growth rates are modelled by Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to capture their uncertain behaviours. There are a lower-level operation model and a higher-level co-planning model in this method. With the energy hub model, the operation model facilitate the operational flexibility by minimizing the operation costs and carbon emission costs. The co-planning model uses real options (RO) to evaluate the planning flexibility and thus maximize the net present value (NPV) and the flexibility value of planning schemes. The proposed methodology is validated on a IES with 39-bus electricity system, 20-node gas system and 6-node heating system. Results illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method in planning IES under long-term uncertainties. It provides analytical tools for system operators to facilitate flexibilities, hedge risks and thus rationalize IES co-planning.