Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

TISP consortium

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

TISP consortium

ETH Zürich
Collegium Helveticum
Harvard University
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
University of Zurich
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
University of Bern
Michigan State University
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
University of Inland Norway
Stellenbosch University
George Mason University
Loughborough University
University of Cambridge
University of St. Gallen
University of Warsaw
Tsinghua University
Tongji University
Nicolaus Copernicus University
Leuphana Universität Lüneburg
University of Notre Dame
University of Lodz
Rhine-Waal University
Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability
University of Minnesota
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
University of Nigeria
University of Sussex
University of Science and Technology Liaoning
Royal Holloway, University of London
University of Roehampton
University of Kent
University of Tirana
Mohammed VI Polytechnic University
University of Vienna
Université Paris Nanterre
Institut NEEL
Waseda University
Jagiellonian University
Eötvös Loránd University
Arizona State University
University of New South Wales
TED University
University of Otago
University of Tasmania
Jahangirnagar University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

48 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	725-735
Number of pages	11
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Issue number	7
Early online date	1 Jul 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4
Publication status	Published - 31 Jul 2025

Data Availability Statement

The dataset on subjective attribution and policy support analysed during the current study is available in the Open Science Framework (OSF) repository at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/5C3QD (ref. 76). The dataset on exposed populations to extreme weather events generated and analysed during the current study is available in OSF at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/G23A7 (ref. 77).

Funding

Open access funding provided by Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world",

abstract = "Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.",

author = "\{TISP consortium\} and Viktoria Cologna and Simona Meiler and Kropf, \{Chahan M.\} and Samuel L{\"u}thi and Mede, \{Niels G.\} and Bresch, \{David N.\} and Oscar Lecuona and Sebastian Berger and John Besley and Cameron Brick and Marina Joubert and Maibach, \{Edward W.\} and Sabina Mihelj and Naomi Oreskes and Sch{\"a}fer, \{Mike S.\} and Linden, \{Sander van der\} and Amber Zenklusen and Ewa Zegler-Poleska and Jinliang Xie and Ziqian Xia and Wojcik, \{Adrian Dominik\} and Mareike Westfal and Tim Weninger and Izabela Warwas and Bubnoff, \{Andreas von\} and Madalina Vlasceanu and Iris Vilares and Noord, \{Jochem van\} and Uzoma, \{Ijeoma Chinwe\} and Uluğ, \{{\"O}zden Melis\} and Michael Tyrala and Manos Tsakiris and Daniel Toribio-Florez and Renata Tokrri and Toko, \{Abdoul Kafid\} and Boryana Todorova and Claudia Teran-Escobar and Mikihito Tanaka and Ewa Szumowska and Barnabas Szaszi and Stylianos Syropoulos and Noel Strahm and Stanley, \{Samantha K.\} and Bram Spruyt and Leonhard Sp{\"a}th and Nevin Solak and Kerr, \{John R.\} and Jones, \{Charlotte A.\} and Islam, \{Mohammad Tarikul\} and Eleonora Alabrese",

year = "2025",

month = jul,

day = "31",

doi = "10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4",

language = "English",

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pages = "725--735",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

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AU - TISP consortium

AU - Cologna, Viktoria

AU - Meiler, Simona

AU - Kropf, Chahan M.

AU - Lüthi, Samuel

AU - Mede, Niels G.

AU - Bresch, David N.

AU - Lecuona, Oscar

AU - Berger, Sebastian

AU - Besley, John

AU - Brick, Cameron

AU - Joubert, Marina

AU - Maibach, Edward W.

AU - Mihelj, Sabina

AU - Oreskes, Naomi

AU - Schäfer, Mike S.

AU - Linden, Sander van der

AU - Zenklusen, Amber

AU - Zegler-Poleska, Ewa

AU - Xie, Jinliang

AU - Xia, Ziqian

AU - Wojcik, Adrian Dominik

AU - Westfal, Mareike

AU - Weninger, Tim

AU - Warwas, Izabela

AU - Bubnoff, Andreas von

AU - Vlasceanu, Madalina

AU - Vilares, Iris

AU - Noord, Jochem van

AU - Uzoma, Ijeoma Chinwe

AU - Uluğ, Özden Melis

AU - Tyrala, Michael

AU - Tsakiris, Manos

AU - Toribio-Florez, Daniel

AU - Tokrri, Renata

AU - Toko, Abdoul Kafid

AU - Todorova, Boryana

AU - Teran-Escobar, Claudia

AU - Tanaka, Mikihito

AU - Szumowska, Ewa

AU - Szaszi, Barnabas

AU - Syropoulos, Stylianos

AU - Strahm, Noel

AU - Stanley, Samantha K.

AU - Spruyt, Bram

AU - Späth, Leonhard

AU - Solak, Nevin

AU - Kerr, John R.

AU - Jones, Charlotte A.

AU - Islam, Mohammad Tarikul

AU - Alabrese, Eleonora

PY - 2025/7/31

Y1 - 2025/7/31

N2 - Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.

AB - Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105025036530

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105025036530

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 15

SP - 725

EP - 735

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 7

ER -

Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Funding

UN SDGs

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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