Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

Viktoria Cologna; Simona  Meiler; Niels G. Mede; Chahan M.  Kropf; Samuel  Lüthi; Niels G. Mede; David N. Bresch; Oscar Lecuona; Sebastian Berger; John Besley; Cameron Brick; Marina Joubert; Edward W. Maibach; Sabina Mihelj; Naomi Oreskes; Mike S. Schäfer; Sander van der Linden; Eleonora Alabrese

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

Viktoria Cologna, Simona Meiler, Niels G. Mede, Chahan M. Kropf, Samuel Lüthi, Niels G. Mede, David N. Bresch, Oscar Lecuona, Sebastian Berger, John Besley, Cameron Brick, Marina Joubert, Edward W. Maibach, Sabina Mihelj, Naomi Oreskes, Mike S. Schäfer, Sander van der Linden, Eleonora Alabrese

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	725-735
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Early online date	1 Jul 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 1 Jul 2025

Funding

Open access funding provided by Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4Licence: CC BY

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Cologna, V., Meiler, S., Mede, N. G., Kropf, C. M., Lüthi, S., Mede, N. G., Bresch, D. N., Lecuona, O., Berger, S., Besley, J., Brick, C., Joubert, M., Maibach, E. W., Mihelj, S., Oreskes, N., Schäfer, M. S., van der Linden, S., & Alabrese, E. (2025). Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world. Nature Climate Change, 15, 725-735. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

Cologna, V, Meiler, S, Mede, NG, Kropf, CM, Lüthi, S, Mede, NG, Bresch, DN, Lecuona, O, Berger, S, Besley, J, Brick, C, Joubert, M, Maibach, EW, Mihelj, S, Oreskes, N, Schäfer, MS, van der Linden, S & Alabrese, E 2025, 'Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world', Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, pp. 725-735. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

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title = "Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world",

abstract = "Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.",

author = "Viktoria Cologna and Simona Meiler and Mede, \{Niels G.\} and Kropf, \{Chahan M.\} and Samuel L{\"u}thi and Mede, \{Niels G.\} and Bresch, \{David N.\} and Oscar Lecuona and Sebastian Berger and John Besley and Cameron Brick and Marina Joubert and Maibach, \{Edward W.\} and Sabina Mihelj and Naomi Oreskes and Sch{\"a}fer, \{Mike S.\} and \{van der Linden\}, Sander and Eleonora Alabrese",

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AU - Cologna, Viktoria

AU - Meiler, Simona

AU - Mede, Niels G.

AU - Kropf, Chahan M.

AU - Lüthi, Samuel

AU - Mede, Niels G.

AU - Bresch, David N.

AU - Lecuona, Oscar

AU - Berger, Sebastian

AU - Besley, John

AU - Brick, Cameron

AU - Joubert, Marina

AU - Maibach, Edward W.

AU - Mihelj, Sabina

AU - Oreskes, Naomi

AU - Schäfer, Mike S.

AU - van der Linden, Sander

AU - Alabrese, Eleonora

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AB - Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.

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DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

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VL - 15

SP - 725

EP - 735

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

ER -

Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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