Exploratory Proof-of-Concept: Predicting the Outcome of Tennis Serves Using Motion Capture and Deep Learning

Tennis serves heavily impact match outcomes, yet analysis by coaches is limited by human vision. The design of an automated tennis serve analysis system could facilitate enhanced performance analysis. As serve location and serve success are directly correlated, predicting the outcome of a serve could provide vital information for performance analysis. This article proposes a tennis serve analysis system powered by Machine Learning, which classifies the outcome of serves as “in”, “out” or “net”, and predicts the coordinate outcome of successful serves. Additionally, this work details the collection of three-dimensional spatio-temporal data on tennis serves, using marker-based optoelectronic motion capture. The classification uses a Stacked Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory architecture, whilst a 3D Convolutional Neural Network architecture is harnessed for serve coordinate prediction. The proposed method achieves 89% accuracy for tennis serve classification, outperforming the current state-of-the-art whilst performing finer-grain classification. The results achieve an accuracy of 63% in predicting the serve coordinates, with a mean absolute error of 0.59 and a root mean squared error of 0.68, exceeding the current state-of-the-art with a new method. The system contributes towards the long-term goal of designing a non-invasive tennis serve analysis system that functions in training and match conditions.