Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Sinan Gonul, Dilek Onkal, Paul Goodwin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on. accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-37
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume28
Issue number1
Early online date4 Sep 2008
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2009

Keywords

  • Forecasting

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