Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in the Long Run and Short Run

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Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper provides evidence of a stable long run relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices for the UK, Japan and Swiss currencies with respect to the US dollar. The resultant error correction models suggest a positive relationship between stock prices and the exchange rate, which in an out-of-sample forecast outperforms the random walk. We compare these results with a similar model incorporating interest rates, suggested by Solnik (1987), however this does not in general improve the results.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBath, U. K.
PublisherDepartment of Economics, University of Bath
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Publication series

NameBath Economics Research Working Papers


  • Stock Prices
  • Forecast
  • Cointegration
  • Exchange Rates


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