Evaluating the Spillover Effects of the Plan Colombia in Ecuador

The implementation of the Plan Colombia is thought to have had significant violence-related spillovers in Ecuador’s bordering provinces with Colombia. We investigate whether the Plan Colombia lead to an increase in violence, measured by homicide rates, in such provinces. Using a difference in difference approach we do not find any evidence of a crime-increasing effect. As a next step, we evaluate the impact of migration on the level of homicides in Ecuador. The instrumental variable results, based on the intensity of the Plan Colombia, show a significant, although small, crime-reducing effect.