Evaluating intensive care triage strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the pandemic many intensive care units (ICU) have been overwhelmed by unprecedented levels of demand. Notwithstanding ethical considerations, the prioritisation of patients with better prognoses may support a more effective use of available capacity in maximising aggregate outcomes. We constructed an open source computer simulation model for approximating the intensive care admission and discharge dynamics under triage. The model was calibrated from observational data for 9505 patient admissions to UK ICUs. We used the model to explore likely triage outcomes under various conditions using a range of demand trajectories corresponding to different non-pharmaceutical interventions.