Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution

an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

Aaron J. Cohen, Michael Brauer, Richard Burnett, H. Ross Anderson, Joseph Frostad, Kara Estep, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Bert Brunekreef, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Valery Feigin, Greg Freedman, Bryan Hubbell, Amelia Jobling, Haidong Kan, Luke Knibbs, Yang Liu, Randall Martin, Lidia Morawska, C. Arden Pope & 9 others Hwashin Shin, Kurt Straif, Gavin Shaddick, Matthew Thomas, Rita van Dingenen, Aaron van Donkelaar, Theo Vos, Christopher J.L. Murray, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

730 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1907-1918
Number of pages12
JournalLancet
Volume389
Issue number10082
Early online date10 Apr 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 May 2017

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Air Pollution
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Uncertainty
Mortality
Ozone
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Chemical Models
Cerebrovascular Disorders
Far East
Insurance Benefits
Respiratory Tract Infections
Population
Myocardial Ischemia
Epidemiologic Studies
Cause of Death
Lung Neoplasms
Morbidity
Global Burden of Disease
Health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015. / Cohen, Aaron J.; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H. Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C. Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J.L.; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

In: Lancet, Vol. 389, No. 10082, 13.05.2017, p. 1907-1918.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Cohen, AJ, Brauer, M, Burnett, R, Anderson, HR, Frostad, J, Estep, K, Balakrishnan, K, Brunekreef, B, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Feigin, V, Freedman, G, Hubbell, B, Jobling, A, Kan, H, Knibbs, L, Liu, Y, Martin, R, Morawska, L, Pope, CA, Shin, H, Straif, K, Shaddick, G, Thomas, M, van Dingenen, R, van Donkelaar, A, Vos, T, Murray, CJL & Forouzanfar, MH 2017, 'Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015', Lancet, vol. 389, no. 10082, pp. 1907-1918. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6
Cohen, Aaron J. ; Brauer, Michael ; Burnett, Richard ; Anderson, H. Ross ; Frostad, Joseph ; Estep, Kara ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Brunekreef, Bert ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Feigin, Valery ; Freedman, Greg ; Hubbell, Bryan ; Jobling, Amelia ; Kan, Haidong ; Knibbs, Luke ; Liu, Yang ; Martin, Randall ; Morawska, Lidia ; Pope, C. Arden ; Shin, Hwashin ; Straif, Kurt ; Shaddick, Gavin ; Thomas, Matthew ; van Dingenen, Rita ; van Donkelaar, Aaron ; Vos, Theo ; Murray, Christopher J.L. ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. / Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015. In: Lancet. 2017 ; Vol. 389, No. 10082. pp. 1907-1918.
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title = "Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015",
abstract = "Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6{\%} of total global deaths and 4·2{\%} of global DALYs, 59{\%} of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95{\%} UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95{\%} UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.",
author = "Cohen, {Aaron J.} and Michael Brauer and Richard Burnett and Anderson, {H. Ross} and Joseph Frostad and Kara Estep and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Bert Brunekreef and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Valery Feigin and Greg Freedman and Bryan Hubbell and Amelia Jobling and Haidong Kan and Luke Knibbs and Yang Liu and Randall Martin and Lidia Morawska and Pope, {C. Arden} and Hwashin Shin and Kurt Straif and Gavin Shaddick and Matthew Thomas and {van Dingenen}, Rita and {van Donkelaar}, Aaron and Theo Vos and Murray, {Christopher J.L.} and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.}",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution

T2 - an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

AU - Cohen, Aaron J.

AU - Brauer, Michael

AU - Burnett, Richard

AU - Anderson, H. Ross

AU - Frostad, Joseph

AU - Estep, Kara

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Brunekreef, Bert

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Feigin, Valery

AU - Freedman, Greg

AU - Hubbell, Bryan

AU - Jobling, Amelia

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Knibbs, Luke

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Martin, Randall

AU - Morawska, Lidia

AU - Pope, C. Arden

AU - Shin, Hwashin

AU - Straif, Kurt

AU - Shaddick, Gavin

AU - Thomas, Matthew

AU - van Dingenen, Rita

AU - van Donkelaar, Aaron

AU - Vos, Theo

AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.

AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

PY - 2017/5/13

Y1 - 2017/5/13

N2 - Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.

AB - Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.

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UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6

M3 - Article

VL - 389

SP - 1907

EP - 1918

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10082

ER -