Epiflows: an R package for risk assessment of travel-related spread of disease

Paula Moraga, Ilaria Dorigatti, Zhian N. Kamvar, Pawel Piatkowski, Salla E. Toikkanen, VP Nagraj, Christl A. Donnelly, Thibaut Jombart

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


As international travel increases worldwide, new surveillance tools are needed to help identify locations where diseases are most likely to be spread and prevention measures need to be implemented. In this paper we present epiflows, an R package for risk assessment of travel-related spread of disease. epiflows produces estimates of the expected number of symptomatic and/or asymptomatic infections that could be introduced to other locations from the source of infection. Estimates (average and confidence intervals) of the number of infections introduced elsewhere are obtained by integrating data on the cumulative number of cases reported, population movement, length of stay and information on the distributions of the incubation and infectious periods of the disease. The package also provides tools for geocoding and visualization. We illustrate the use of epiflows by assessing the risk of travel-related spread of yellow fever cases in Southeast Brazil in December 2016 to May 2017.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1374
Pages (from-to)1-20
Number of pages20
JournalF1000 Research
Early online date31 Aug 2018
Publication statusPublished - 12 Sep 2019


  • Disease surveillance
  • Epidemics
  • Infectious
  • Outbreaks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics(all)


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