Environmental suitability of vibrio infections in a warming climate: An early warning system

Jan C. Semenza; Joaquin Trinanes; Wolfgang Lohr; Bertrand Sudre; Margareta Löfdahl; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza; Gordon L. Nichols; Joacim Rocklöv

doi:10.1289/EHP2198

Environmental suitability of vibrio infections in a warming climate: An early warning system

Jan C. Semenza
, Joaquin Trinanes
, Wolfgang Lohr
, Bertrand Sudre
, Margareta Löfdahl
, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
, Gordon L. Nichols
, Joacim Rocklöv

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
University of Miami
Umeå University
Folkhälsomyndigheten
Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas)
University of Exeter
University of East Anglia
Public Health England

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

127 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios.

METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16° C revealed a relative risk (RR) =1:14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p =0:024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change.

Original language	English
Article number	107004
Journal	Environmental Health Perspectives
Volume	125
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198
Publication status	Published - 10 Oct 2017

Funding

J.T. was funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) OceanWatch and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML). G.N. was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England, and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 14 Life Below Water

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Access to Document

10.1289/EHP2198Licence: Other

Cite this

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title = "Environmental suitability of vibrio infections in a warming climate: An early warning system",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16° C revealed a relative risk (RR) =1:14 (95\% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p =0:024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change.",

author = "Semenza, \{Jan C.\} and Joaquin Trinanes and Wolfgang Lohr and Bertrand Sudre and Margareta L{\"o}fdahl and Jaime Martinez-Urtaza and Nichols, \{Gordon L.\} and Joacim Rockl{\"o}v",

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T2 - An early warning system

AU - Semenza, Jan C.

AU - Trinanes, Joaquin

AU - Lohr, Wolfgang

AU - Sudre, Bertrand

AU - Löfdahl, Margareta

AU - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

AU - Nichols, Gordon L.

AU - Rocklöv, Joacim

PY - 2017/10/10

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N2 - BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16° C revealed a relative risk (RR) =1:14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p =0:024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change.

AB - BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16° C revealed a relative risk (RR) =1:14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p =0:024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change.

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JO - Environmental Health Perspectives

JF - Environmental Health Perspectives

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ER -

Environmental suitability of vibrio infections in a warming climate: An early warning system

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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