Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response

Maldon Patrice Goodridge; John Moriarty; Andrea Pizzoferrato

doi:10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183642

Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response

Maldon Patrice Goodridge, John Moriarty, Andrea Pizzoferrato

Department of Mathematical Sciences

Queen Mary University, London

Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter in a published conference proceeding

2 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

Following disturbances to a power system triggering emergency responses such as protection or load/generation shedding, several factors affect the way in which these responses may cascade through the network. Beyond deterministic factors such as network topology, in this paper we aim to quantify the effect of correlations in power disturbances. These arise, for example, from common weather patterns causing correlated forecast errors in renewable generation. Our results suggest that for highly connected networks, the cascade size distribution is bimodal and positively correlated disturbances have the benefit of reducing cascade size. For a fixed network the latter relationship is observed to be stronger when emergency responses are rare, which is consistent with the mathematical theory of large deviations.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings
Publisher	IEEE
ISBN (Electronic)	9781728128221
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183642
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2020
Event	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Liege, Belgium Duration: 18 Aug 2020 → 21 Aug 2020

Publication series

Name	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings

Conference

Conference	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020
Country/Territory	Belgium
City	Liege
Period	18/08/20 → 21/08/20

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors acknowledge support from EPSRC grant EP/P002625/1 and The Alan Turing Institute EPSRC grant EP/N510129/1. AP also acknowledges National Group of Mathematical Physics (GNFM-INdAM). The authors are grateful for the comments of several referees, which have significantly improved the presentation of the paper.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 IEEE.

Keywords

Cascade size
Correlated disturbances
Emergency response
Network topology
Protection schemes
Rare events

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computer Networks and Communications
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Statistics and Probability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183642

Cite this

Goodridge, M. P., Moriarty, J., & Pizzoferrato, A. (2020). Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response. In 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings Article 9183642 (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183642

Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response. / Goodridge, Maldon Patrice; Moriarty, John; Pizzoferrato, Andrea.
2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings. IEEE, 2020. 9183642 (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings).

Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter in a published conference proceeding

Goodridge, MP, Moriarty, J & Pizzoferrato, A 2020, Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response. in 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings., 9183642, 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings, IEEE, 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020, Liege, Belgium, 18/08/20. https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183642

Goodridge MP, Moriarty J, Pizzoferrato A. Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response. In 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings. IEEE. 2020. 9183642. (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings). doi: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183642

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abstract = "Following disturbances to a power system triggering emergency responses such as protection or load/generation shedding, several factors affect the way in which these responses may cascade through the network. Beyond deterministic factors such as network topology, in this paper we aim to quantify the effect of correlations in power disturbances. These arise, for example, from common weather patterns causing correlated forecast errors in renewable generation. Our results suggest that for highly connected networks, the cascade size distribution is bimodal and positively correlated disturbances have the benefit of reducing cascade size. For a fixed network the latter relationship is observed to be stronger when emergency responses are rare, which is consistent with the mathematical theory of large deviations.",

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AB - Following disturbances to a power system triggering emergency responses such as protection or load/generation shedding, several factors affect the way in which these responses may cascade through the network. Beyond deterministic factors such as network topology, in this paper we aim to quantify the effect of correlations in power disturbances. These arise, for example, from common weather patterns causing correlated forecast errors in renewable generation. Our results suggest that for highly connected networks, the cascade size distribution is bimodal and positively correlated disturbances have the benefit of reducing cascade size. For a fixed network the latter relationship is observed to be stronger when emergency responses are rare, which is consistent with the mathematical theory of large deviations.

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Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response

Abstract

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Conference

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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