Differentiated effects on rural poverty of an environmental shock: Evidence from a longitudinal survey in rural Sindh, Pakistan

The paper reports on empirical results of a longitudinal survey of households in rural Sindh, interviewed in 1987/8 and 2004-5. Changes in land use, land tenure, cropping, income and poverty mobility are presented and analysed with reference to alternative theories of agrarian change. The main empirical finding is of a generalised fall in real incomes. This is attributed primarily to a sharp reduction in availability of irrigated water from the Indus River. On average, both richer and poorer households interviewed experienced falls in income. However, this decline was far from uniform: indeed 27 out of 225 households actually climbed out of poverty. Characteristics of upwardly mobile, downwardly mobile, chronic poor and non-poor households are compared. The paper illustrates the methodological limitations of quantitative income mobility analysis of the effect of environmental shocks if not combined with political economy analysis of observed processes of differentiation