Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment

Mike Hapgood; Matthew J. Angling; Gemma Attrill; Mario Bisi; Paul S. Cannon; Clive Dyer; Jonathan P. Eastwood; Sean Elvidge; Mark Gibbs; Richard A. Harrison; Colin Hord; Richard B. Horne; David R. Jackson; Bryn Jones; Simon Machin; Cathryn N. Mitchell; John Preston; John Rees; Neil C. Rogers; Graham Routledge; Keith Ryden; Rick Tanner; Alan W.P. Thomson; James A. Wild; Mike Willis

doi:10.1029/2020SW002593

Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment

Mike Hapgood
, Matthew J. Angling
, Gemma Attrill
, Mario Bisi
, Paul S. Cannon
, Clive Dyer
, Jonathan P. Eastwood
, Sean Elvidge
, Mark Gibbs
, Richard A. Harrison
, Colin Hord
, Richard B. Horne
, David R. Jackson
, Bryn Jones
, Simon Machin
, Cathryn N. Mitchell
, John Preston
, John Rees
, Neil C. Rogers
, Graham Routledge

Keith Ryden, Rick Tanner, Alan W.P. Thomson, James A. Wild, Mike Willis

RAL Space
Spire Global
Defence Evaluation and Research Agency Rosyth
School of Engineering
University of Birmingham
University of Surrey
CSDRadConsultancy
Imperial College London
The Met Office
Civil Aviation Authority
British Antarctic Survey
SolarMetrics Ltd.
University of Essex
British Geological Survey
Lancaster University
Public Health England
The Lyell Centre
UK Space Agency

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

75 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

Severe space weather was identified as a risk to the UK in 2010 as part of a wider review of natural hazards triggered by the societal disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April of that year. To support further risk assessment by government officials, and at their request, we developed a set of reasonable worst-case scenarios and first published them as a technical report in 2012 (current version published in 2020). Each scenario focused on a space weather environment that could disrupt a particular national infrastructure such as electric power or satellites, thus, enabling officials to explore the resilience of that infrastructure against severe space weather through discussions with relevant experts from other parts of government and with the operators of that infrastructure. This approach also encouraged us to focus on the environmental features that are key to generating adverse impacts. In this paper, we outline the scientific evidence that we have used to develop these scenarios, and the refinements made to them as new evidence emerged. We show how these scenarios are also considered as an ensemble so that government officials can prepare for a severe space weather event, during which many or all of the different scenarios will materialize. Finally, we note that this ensemble also needs to include insights into how public behavior will play out during a severe space weather event and hence the importance of providing robust, evidence-based information on space weather and its adverse impacts.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020SW002593
Number of pages	32
Journal	Space Weather
Volume	19
Issue number	4
Early online date	3 Feb 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002593
Publication status	Published - 30 Apr 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors.

Data Availability Statement

Figure 3 is generated for this paper using Dst index from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism in Kyoto(see http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/), and cosmic ray data from the World Data Center for Cosmic Rays in Nagoya (http://cidas.isee.nagoya-u.ac.jp/WDCCR/). Sudden commencement times were sourced from the International Service on Rapid Magnetic Variations (http://www.obsebre.es/php/geomagnetisme/vrapides/ssc_1960_d.html). All other data are sourced from the references below.

Acknowledgements

The authors of this paper are members(past and present) of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG),an independent group of space weather experts that provides advice to UK government bodies. SEIEG was set up in 2010 with strong encouragement from the Civil Contingencies Secretariat(CCS), part of Cabinet Office, and, in particular, has developed and maintained the set of reasonable worst-case scenarios discussed in this paper. The authors thank the UK government bodies that have encouraged us to develop these scenarios: in particular CCS, the Government Office for Science, and the Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy. They have provided much useful guidance, as well as venues where SEIEG members could meet to progress our ideas. M. Hapgood, M. Bisi, and R. A. Harrison acknowledge support provided by STFC, including grant ST/M001083/1.R. B. Horne was supported by NERC National Capability grants NE/R016038/1 and NE/R016445/1 and Highlight Topic Grant NE/P01738X/1(Rad-Sat). A. W. P. Thomson acknowledges support under NERC Highlight Topic grant NE/P017231/1 (Space Weather Impact on Ground-based Systems, SWIGS). J. Eastwood acknowledges support under NERC Highlight Topics Grants NE/P017142/1 (SWIGS)and NE/P017347/1 (Rad-Sat). J. A. Wild and N. C. Rogers acknowledge support under NERC Highlight Topic grant NE/P016715/1 (SWIGS). NCR acknowledges support under NERC grant NE/V002686/1 (Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modeling and Risk, SWIMMR). C. N. Mitchell acknowledges NERC grant NE/P006450/1. The authors thank Prof. Farideh Honary for helpful discussions and support. The authors also express our thanks to Catherine Burnett for her support and encouragement of the work of SEIEG, not least this paper.

Keywords

extreme conditions
national risk assessment
reasonable worst-case scenarios
space weather
technological impacts

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Atmospheric Science

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Cite this

Hapgood, M., Angling, M. J., Attrill, G., Bisi, M., Cannon, P. S., Dyer, C., Eastwood, J. P., Elvidge, S., Gibbs, M., Harrison, R. A., Hord, C., Horne, R. B., Jackson, D. R., Jones, B., Machin, S., Mitchell, C. N., Preston, J., Rees, J., Rogers, N. C., ... Willis, M. (2021). Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment. Space Weather, 19(4), Article e2020SW002593. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002593

Hapgood, M, Angling, MJ, Attrill, G, Bisi, M, Cannon, PS, Dyer, C, Eastwood, JP, Elvidge, S, Gibbs, M, Harrison, RA, Hord, C, Horne, RB, Jackson, DR, Jones, B, Machin, S, Mitchell, CN, Preston, J, Rees, J, Rogers, NC, Routledge, G, Ryden, K, Tanner, R, Thomson, AWP, Wild, JA & Willis, M 2021, 'Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment', Space Weather, vol. 19, no. 4, e2020SW002593. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002593

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Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Availability Statement

Acknowledgements

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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