Developing a simulation tool to support decisions around the commissioning of anticoagulation services for patients with atrial fibrillation

Christos Vasilakis, Neophytos Stylianou

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

Abstract

Atrial fibrillation (AF), an arrhythmia characterized by chaotic electrical activity in the atria, is a public health problem affecting countries experiencing aging population ageing. AF not only increases the risk of stoke five-fold but a stroke suffered by this group of patients are more significant and result in more serious harm and greater mortality. Historically, Warfarin and aspirin have been the treatments of choice but recent guidance states that aspirin should not be used as a monotherapy. More recently a new class of drugs was developed, Novel Oral Anti-Coagulants (NOACs), which aim to treat AF while avoiding some of the drawbacks of Warfarin. However, each treatment comes with costs and benefits for both the patient and care system which need to be taken into account when planning the organisation of stroke prevention services at a regional or national level. Our aim was to develop a prototype modelling software tool to help with decisions around the organisation of anti-coagulation and stroke prevention services at regional level. Specifically, we constructed a stochastic simulation model representing patients with AF on different treatments and their respective outcomes. We implemented a prototype software tool to allow the execution of computer simulation experiments. Finally, we experimented with a number of showcasing scenarios that evaluate the likely impact of changes of in the mixture of medication treatments on patient and system level outcomes.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event29th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO2018) - Valencia, Spain
Duration: 8 Jul 201811 Jul 2018
http://euro2018valencia.com

Conference

Conference29th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO2018)
CountrySpain
CityValencia
Period8/07/1811/07/18
Internet address

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    Vasilakis, C., & Stylianou, N. (2018). Developing a simulation tool to support decisions around the commissioning of anticoagulation services for patients with atrial fibrillation. Abstract from 29th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO2018), Valencia, Spain.