This study investigates whether long-term changes in observed series of high flows can be attributed to changes in land-use via non-stationary flood frequency analyses. A point process characterization of threshold exceedances is used, which allows for direct inclusion of covariates in the model; as well as a non-stationary model for block maxima series. In particular, changes in annual, winter and summer block maxima and peaks over threshold extracted from gauged instantaneous flows records in two hydrologically similar catchments located in close proximity to one another in northern England are investigated. The study catchment is characterized by large increases in urbanization levels in recent decades, while the paired control catchment has remained undeveloped during the study period (1970-2010). To avoid the potential confounding effect of natural variability, a covariate which summarize key climatological properties is included in the flood frequency model. A significant effect of the increasing urbanization levels on high flows is detected, in particular in the summer season. Point process models appear to be superior to block maxima models in their ability to detect the effect of the increase in urbanization levels on high flows.
|Number of pages||19|
|Journal||Water Resources Research|
|Early online date||20 May 2015|
|Publication status||Published - 1 Jun 2015|
- flood frequency estimation
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- Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering - Senior Lecturer
- Water Innovation and Research Centre (WIRC)
- Research Unit for Water, Environment and Infrastructure Resilience (WEIR)
- EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Statistical Applied Mathematics (SAMBa)
- Institute for Mathematical Innovation (IMI)
- Centre for Regenerative Design & Engineering for a Net Positive World (RENEW)
Person: Research & Teaching, Core staff