Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

This study quantifies the increase in the peak power demand, net of non-dispatchable generation, that may be required by widespread adoption of heat pumps. Electrification of heating could reduce emissions but also cause a challenging increase in peak power demand. This paper expands on previous studies by quantifying the increase in greater detail; considering a wider range of scenarios, the characteristics of heat pumps and the interaction between wind generation and demand side management. A model was developed with dynamic simulations of individual heat pumps and dwellings.
The increase in peak net-demand is highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the heat pumps, their installation, building fabric and the characteristics of the grid. If 80% of dwellings in the UK use heat pumps, peak net-demand could increase by around 100% (54GW) but this increase could be mitigated to 30% (16GW) by favourable conditions. Demand side management could reduce this increase to 20%, or 15% if used with extensive thermal storage. If 60% of dwellings use heat pumps, the increase in peak net-demand could be as low as 5.5GW.
High-performance heat pumps, appropriate installation and better insulated dwellings could make the increase in peak net-demand due to the electrification of heating more manageable.