Dependence by Design: Decisive Control in Royal Navy Missions under US Retrenchment

This paper examines whether UK naval power, designed to depend on US support, can meet doctrinal requirements if that support is withdrawn. Using an open-source, scenario-based audit, it maps dependencies, tests replacements within UK force structure, and evaluates sovereignty options. Across nine requirements, 51 US enablers were identified. None meet thresholds without US support. Four lack credible alternatives within policy timelines. The study formalises ‘dependence by design’ and offers a replicable audit and sovereignty plan. We argue that proportional scaling can improve at the margins but not operational capability. UK naval outputs remain US-conditioned, yet those outputs are becoming ever-more-vital just as the US retrenches its support.