TY - JOUR
T1 - Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability
T2 - enhancing the scenario method
AU - Wright, George
AU - Goodwin, Paul
PY - 2009/10
Y1 - 2009/10
N2 - In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation. (C) 2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
AB - In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation. (C) 2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70349947934&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019
DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019
M3 - Article
SN - 0169-2070
VL - 25
SP - 813
EP - 825
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
IS - 4
ER -