Abstract
Air pollution is a leading global disease risk factor. Tracking progress (e.g., for Sustainable Development Goals) requires accurate, spatially resolved, routinely updated exposure estimates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate annual average fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution globally for 2010-2016. The model incorporated spatially varying relationships between 6003 ground measurements from 117 countries, satellite-based estimates, and other predictors. Model coefficients indicated larger contributions from satellite-based estimates in countries with low monitor density. Within and out-of-sample cross-validation indicated improved predictions of ground measurements compared to previous (Global Burden of Disease 2013) estimates (increased within-sample R2 from 0.64 to 0.91, reduced out-of-sample, global population-weighted root mean squared error from 23 μg/m3 to 12 μg/m3). In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where ambient PM2.5 levels exceeded the World Health Organization 10 μg/m3 (annual average) guideline; 58% resided in areas above the 35 μg/m3 Interim Target-1. Global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were 18% higher in 2016 (51.1 μg/m3) than in 2010 (43.2 μg/m3), reflecting in particular increases in populous South Asian countries and from Saharan dust transported to West Africa. Concentrations in China were high (2016 population-weighted mean: 56.4 μg/m3) but stable during this period.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 9069-9078 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Environmental Science and Technology |
| Volume | 52 |
| Issue number | 16 |
| Early online date | 29 Jun 2018 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 21 Aug 2018 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Chemistry(all)
- Environmental Chemistry
Cite this
Data Integration for the Assessment of Population Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution for Global Burden of Disease Assessment. / Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew L.; Amini, Heresh; Broday, David; Cohen, Aaron; Frostad, Joseph; Green, Amelia; Gumy, Sophie; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall V.; Pruss-Ustun, Annette; Simpson, Daniel; Van Donkelaar, Aaron; Brauer, Michael.
In: Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 52, No. 16, 21.08.2018, p. 9069-9078.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Data Integration for the Assessment of Population Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution for Global Burden of Disease Assessment
AU - Shaddick, Gavin
AU - Thomas, Matthew L.
AU - Amini, Heresh
AU - Broday, David
AU - Cohen, Aaron
AU - Frostad, Joseph
AU - Green, Amelia
AU - Gumy, Sophie
AU - Liu, Yang
AU - Martin, Randall V.
AU - Pruss-Ustun, Annette
AU - Simpson, Daniel
AU - Van Donkelaar, Aaron
AU - Brauer, Michael
PY - 2018/8/21
Y1 - 2018/8/21
N2 - Air pollution is a leading global disease risk factor. Tracking progress (e.g., for Sustainable Development Goals) requires accurate, spatially resolved, routinely updated exposure estimates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate annual average fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution globally for 2010-2016. The model incorporated spatially varying relationships between 6003 ground measurements from 117 countries, satellite-based estimates, and other predictors. Model coefficients indicated larger contributions from satellite-based estimates in countries with low monitor density. Within and out-of-sample cross-validation indicated improved predictions of ground measurements compared to previous (Global Burden of Disease 2013) estimates (increased within-sample R2 from 0.64 to 0.91, reduced out-of-sample, global population-weighted root mean squared error from 23 μg/m3 to 12 μg/m3). In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where ambient PM2.5 levels exceeded the World Health Organization 10 μg/m3 (annual average) guideline; 58% resided in areas above the 35 μg/m3 Interim Target-1. Global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were 18% higher in 2016 (51.1 μg/m3) than in 2010 (43.2 μg/m3), reflecting in particular increases in populous South Asian countries and from Saharan dust transported to West Africa. Concentrations in China were high (2016 population-weighted mean: 56.4 μg/m3) but stable during this period.
AB - Air pollution is a leading global disease risk factor. Tracking progress (e.g., for Sustainable Development Goals) requires accurate, spatially resolved, routinely updated exposure estimates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate annual average fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution globally for 2010-2016. The model incorporated spatially varying relationships between 6003 ground measurements from 117 countries, satellite-based estimates, and other predictors. Model coefficients indicated larger contributions from satellite-based estimates in countries with low monitor density. Within and out-of-sample cross-validation indicated improved predictions of ground measurements compared to previous (Global Burden of Disease 2013) estimates (increased within-sample R2 from 0.64 to 0.91, reduced out-of-sample, global population-weighted root mean squared error from 23 μg/m3 to 12 μg/m3). In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where ambient PM2.5 levels exceeded the World Health Organization 10 μg/m3 (annual average) guideline; 58% resided in areas above the 35 μg/m3 Interim Target-1. Global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were 18% higher in 2016 (51.1 μg/m3) than in 2010 (43.2 μg/m3), reflecting in particular increases in populous South Asian countries and from Saharan dust transported to West Africa. Concentrations in China were high (2016 population-weighted mean: 56.4 μg/m3) but stable during this period.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85049336718&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1021/acs.est.8b02864
DO - 10.1021/acs.est.8b02864
M3 - Article
VL - 52
SP - 9069
EP - 9078
JO - Environmental Science & Technology
JF - Environmental Science & Technology
SN - 0013-936X
IS - 16
ER -