Abstract
Dispersal is a ubiquitous phenomenon that affects the dynamics of the population and the evolution of natural populations; however, it is challenging to measure in most species. Furthermore, the influence of informed dispersal behaviors, referring to the nonrandom selection of breeding habitats by individuals, on species' responses to rapid global change is substantial but difficult to comprehend. Here, we present a modeling framework to assess the dispersal characteristics and behaviors of a metapopulation when observations provide information on its neutral genetic structure for a restricted sampling of locations. Our mechanistic-statistical model couples a deterministic model capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of four genetic clusters across all breeding colonies by integrating demographic processes with genetic projections, with a probabilistic observation model describing the probability to sample an individual from a given genetic cluster. We apply this new framework to the emperor penguin, a species living in Antarctica and currently experiencing habitat loss. The model estimates the species' dispersal distance, rates of emigration, and behaviors associated with dispersal (informed or random). By incorporating these estimations with satellite censuses of breeding colonies, we can identify environmental and demographic factors that influence the dispersal of emperor penguins. Finally, we provide new global population forecasts for emperor penguins that can inform conservation actions in Antarctica.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e71367 |
| Journal | Ecology and Evolution |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 5 |
| Early online date | 14 May 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 31 May 2025 |
Data Availability Statement
The SNP data set is available from the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4s7t3. The codes for the likelihood function and forecasts of emperor penguin population are available from the GitHub repository https://github.com/garnieji/EP_demographic_genetic, and the code for the importance of climatic and demographic covariates is available from the GitHub repository https://github.com/bilgecansen/Emperor_dispersal.Funding
S.J. and J.G. acknowledge support from Mission Blue, S.J. from NSF OPP 2037561 and NASA 80NSSC20K1289. We also acknowledge the Institut Paul Emile Victor (Project IPEV 109 OrnithoEco) and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises for supporting the long-term program on Emperor penguins at Pointe Géologie. This project received grant funding from the Australian Government as part of the Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program. J.G. acknowledges support from the French ANR project ReaCh (ANR-23-ce40-0023-01).
Keywords
- dispersal distance
- dispersal kernel
- dispersal range
- emigration rates
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
- Ecology
- Nature and Landscape Conservation
