Abstract
This paper examines the potential impact of
climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It
combines multiple climate change scenarios and different
impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multifaceted
aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative
options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity.
Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands,
their current extent in Finland is much lower than the
minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly
species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable
areas for butterfly species varied considerably between
different modelling techniques and climate change
scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account
in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential
adaptation options considered the promotion of existing
measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES),
as well as new measures, including species translocation
and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared
using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA
results indicated that buffer zones are the most costeffective
AES measure, although environmental fallows
and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness.
The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared
to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of
habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal
corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers
revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake
of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may
prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently
assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation
of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland
appear unfavourable.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 71-84 |
Journal | Regional Environmental Change |
Volume | 16 |
Issue number | 1 |
Early online date | 10 Sept 2014 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Jan 2016 |
Keywords
- Adaptation Agri-environmental scheme
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Alistair Hunt
- Department of Economics - Senior Lecturer
- Water Innovation and Research Centre (WIRC)
- Public and Environmental Economics
- Centre for Climate Adaptation & Environment Research (CAER)
- Tobacco Control Research Group (TCRG)
- Centre for 21st Century Public Health
- Institute of Sustainability and Climate Change
Person: Research & Teaching, Core staff, Researcher, Affiliate staff