Comparing security assessment schemes through two-stage Monte Carlo sampling

The penetration of unscheduleable generation will increase due to legislation and eventually saving on fuel cost. This will cause an increase in uncertainty of power flow and drive up balancing market costs. A security assessment scheme that considers probabilistic uncertainty could give financial savings and better security of supply. Any change in security assessment scheme must be tested, compared, and verified. Though there has been a lot of work into probabilistic security assessment there has been far less on comparing security assessment schemes. This work uses two stage Monte Carlo sampling to generate a data set which can be used for easy comparison between different schemes. In this paper numerical results are presented that show that this method can provide valuable information about how the system will cope with unexpected changes. This will allow security assessment schemes to be developed in the future that do not disadvantage a high penetration of variable renewable generation.