Comparing deterministic and probabilistic non-operational building energy modelling

Bengt Cousins-Jenvey, Pete Walker, Andrew Shea, Judith Sykes, Anders Johansson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

There is a lack of consensus about whether researchers and practitioners should use a deterministic single value or probabilistic distribution of values for each input when modelling the life cycle of a building. This study produces a direct comparison of the two approaches by modelling the nonoperational life cycle energy of three buildings deterministically and probabilistically to explore whether the two approaches produce different conclusions. A detailed method describes the model - its structure, formulae and the best-case, typical and worst-case inputs - with supporting references. This detail provides a thorough explanation of why probabilistic modelling suggests that non-operational energy could be 28-44% lower or 48-283% higher than the original values and why a significant shift in the distribution of non-operational life cycle energy is possible. When used deterministically, the model suggests non-operational energy use is greatest during the product phase. However, when used probabilistically, the model highlights the risk that short component lives and long distance transport by road can significantly increase non-operational energy during the use, construction and end of life phases. The study discusses how future modelling should address a number of uncertainties so that it is more useful for researchers and practitioners.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication30th International PLEA Conference
Subtitle of host publicationSustainable Habitat for Developing Societies: Choosing the Way Forward - Proceedings
EditorsRajan Rawal, Sanyogita Manu, Nirmala Khadpekar
PublisherCEPT University Press
Pages115-122
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789383184033
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
Event30th International on Passive and Low Energy Architecture Conference - Sustainable Habitat for Developing Societies: Choosing the Way Forward, PLEA 2014 - Ahmedabad, India
Duration: 16 Dec 201418 Dec 2014

Publication series

Name30th International PLEA Conference: Sustainable Habitat for Developing Societies: Choosing the Way Forward - Proceedings
Volume1

Conference

Conference30th International on Passive and Low Energy Architecture Conference - Sustainable Habitat for Developing Societies: Choosing the Way Forward, PLEA 2014
CountryIndia
CityAhmedabad
Period16/12/1418/12/14

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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