Choix d'estimateurs de fiabilité, de résilience et de vulnérabilité pour les analyses de risque de systèmes de ressources en eau

Translated title of the contribution: Choice of reliability, resilience and vulnerability estimators for risk assessments of water resources systems

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Abstract

Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for.

Translated title of the contributionChoice of reliability, resilience and vulnerability estimators for risk assessments of water resources systems
Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)755-767
Number of pages13
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume49
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2004

Keywords

  • Reliability
  • Reservoirs
  • Resilience
  • Vulnerability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

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