Choix d'estimateurs de fiabilité, de résilience et de vulnérabilité pour les analyses de risque de systèmes de ressources en eau

Translated title of the contribution: Choice of reliability, resilience and vulnerability estimators for risk assessments of water resources systems

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

87 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for.

Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)755-767
Number of pages13
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume49
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2004

Keywords

  • Reliability
  • Reservoirs
  • Resilience
  • Vulnerability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

@article{28fbcb0e440d48638d154d43e62a44ae,
title = "Choix d'estimateurs de fiabilit{\'e}, de r{\'e}silience et de vuln{\'e}rabilit{\'e} pour les analyses de risque de syst{\`e}mes de ressources en eau",
abstract = "Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for.",
keywords = "Reliability, Reservoirs, Resilience, Vulnerability",
author = "Kjeldsen, {Thomas Rodding} and Dan Rosbjerg",
year = "2004",
month = "10",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1623/hysj.49.5.755.55136",
language = "French",
volume = "49",
pages = "755--767",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
issn = "0262-6667",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Choix d'estimateurs de fiabilité, de résilience et de vulnérabilité pour les analyses de risque de systèmes de ressources en eau

AU - Kjeldsen, Thomas Rodding

AU - Rosbjerg, Dan

PY - 2004/10/1

Y1 - 2004/10/1

N2 - Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for.

AB - Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for.

KW - Reliability

KW - Reservoirs

KW - Resilience

KW - Vulnerability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=4944234190&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1623/hysj.49.5.755.55136

DO - 10.1623/hysj.49.5.755.55136

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:4944234190

VL - 49

SP - 755

EP - 767

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 5

ER -