China and Global Sustainability Transition Outlook 2025: China's emerging leadership in global sustainability governance amid geopolitical turbulence.

Can China lead global sustainability transition? This question is particularly pertinent in 2025 as geopolitical shifts have left a leadership vacuum in global sustainability governance. Despite China’s growing influence in global governance and its emergence as a powerhouse of clean technologies, Chinese state and non-state actors are not always coherent in their willingness to provide more support for sustainability transitions of other countries. Drawing on an original expert survey and evidence from academic and grey literature, this report examines China’s roles in three critical areas related to sustainability transitions: as a promoter of international environmental cooperation, a leading energy investor in the Global South, and a dominant force in global critical mineral supply chains. Our analysis show that while China has already made, in various ways, nontrivial contributions to sustainability transitions worldwide, several institutional and ideational barriers have prevented related Chinese actors from playing a more active role in supporting transitions in other countries. To address these challenges, we recommend policy reforms for Chinese state and non-state actors in four broad areas: strengthening support for multilateral cooperation, enhancing transparency of policies and activities, promoting a just transition in overseas engagement, and establishing robust communication channels with international stakeholders. Such reforms will help relevant Chinese actors cooperate more effectively with their international partners to accelerate global sustainability transition, establishing China as a responsible global power dedicated to protecting our common future.