Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

Nina T. Rogers; David Pell; Oliver T. Mytton; Tarra L. Penney; Adam Briggs; Steven Cummins; Catrin Jones; Mike Rayner; Harry Rutter; Peter Scarborough; Stephen Sharp; Richard Smith; Martin White; Jean Adams

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077059

Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

Nina T. Rogers, David Pell, Oliver T. Mytton, Tarra L. Penney, Adam Briggs, Steven Cummins, Catrin Jones, Mike Rayner, Harry Rutter, Peter Scarborough, Stephen Sharp, Richard Smith, Martin White, Jean Adams

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

Objective: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks 1 year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). Design Controlled interrupted time series.

Participants: Households reporting their purchasing to a market research company (average weekly n=22 091), March 2014 to March 2019. Intervention A two-tiered tax levied on soft drinks manufacturers, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L.

Main outcome measures: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol and confectionery purchased per household per week 1 year after implementation.

Results: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual, purchased volume of high tier drinks decreased by 140.8 mL (95% CI 104.3 to 177.3 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 37.8% (28.0% to 47.6%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 16.2 g (13.5 to 18.8 g), or 42.6% (35.6% to 49.6%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 170.5 mL (154.5 to 186.5 mL) or 85.8% (77.8% to 93.9%), with an 11.5 g (9.1 to 13.9 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 87.8% (69.2% to 106.4%). When all soft drinks were combined irrespective of levy tier or eligibility, the volume of drinks purchased increased by 188.8 mL (30.7 to 346.9 mL) per household per week, or 2.6% (0.4% to 4.7%), but sugar decreased by 8.0 g (2.4 to 13.6 g), or 2.7% (0.8% to 4.5%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not increase.

Conclusions: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, 1 year after implementation, volume of all soft drinks purchased combined increased by 189 mL, or 2.6% per household per week. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 8 g, or 2.7%, lower per household per week. Further studies should determine whether and how apparently small effect sizes translate into health outcomes. Trial registration number ISRCTN18042742.

Original language	English
Article number	e077059
Journal	BMJ Open
Volume	13
Issue number	12
Early online date	5 Dec 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077059
Publication status	Published - 31 Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Data availability statement:
Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The statistical code for the analyses is available from https://github.com/MRC-Epid/SDILEvaluation. Kantar Worldpanel data are not publicly available but can be purchased from Kantar Worldpanel (http://www.kantarworldpanel.com). The authors are not legally permitted to share the data used for this study but interested parties can contact Kantar WorldPanel representative Sean Cannon ([email protected]) to inquire about accessing this proprietary data. The lead author affirms that the manuscript is an honest, accurate and transparent account of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been explained.

Funding

NR, OTM, MW and JA were funded by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC) Public Health Research Centre of Excellence Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UKCRC. This project was funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme (grant numbers 16/49/01 and 16/130/01), and these grants supported purchase of the data used in this study. The work was also supported by the Medical Research Council (grant numbers MC_UU_12015/6 and MC_UU_00006/7). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care, UK. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. NR and JA had full access to all the data in the study. All authors had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. The lead author affirms that the manuscript is an honest, accurate, and transparent account of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been explained.

Funders	Funder number
The Wellcome Trust
University of Exeter
Medical Research Council
Economic and Social Research Council
National Institute for Health and Care Research
British Heart Foundation
Cancer Research UK
University College London	16/49/01, MC_UU_00006/7, MC_UU_12015/6, 16/130/01
University of Cambridge

Keywords

nutrition & dietetics
obesity
public health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Medicine

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077059Licence: CC BY

Cite this

Rogers, N. T., Pell, D., Mytton, O. T., Penney, T. L., Briggs, A., Cummins, S., Jones, C., Rayner, M., Rutter, H., Scarborough, P., Sharp, S., Smith, R., White, M., & Adams, J. (2023). Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis. BMJ Open, 13(12), Article e077059. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077059

Rogers, NT, Pell, D, Mytton, OT, Penney, TL, Briggs, A, Cummins, S, Jones, C, Rayner, M, Rutter, H, Scarborough, P, Sharp, S, Smith, R, White, M & Adams, J 2023, 'Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis', BMJ Open, vol. 13, no. 12, e077059. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077059

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title = "Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis",

abstract = "Objective: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks 1 year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). Design Controlled interrupted time series. Participants: Households reporting their purchasing to a market research company (average weekly n=22 091), March 2014 to March 2019. Intervention A two-tiered tax levied on soft drinks manufacturers, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. Main outcome measures: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol and confectionery purchased per household per week 1 year after implementation. Results: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual, purchased volume of high tier drinks decreased by 140.8 mL (95% CI 104.3 to 177.3 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 37.8% (28.0% to 47.6%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 16.2 g (13.5 to 18.8 g), or 42.6% (35.6% to 49.6%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 170.5 mL (154.5 to 186.5 mL) or 85.8% (77.8% to 93.9%), with an 11.5 g (9.1 to 13.9 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 87.8% (69.2% to 106.4%). When all soft drinks were combined irrespective of levy tier or eligibility, the volume of drinks purchased increased by 188.8 mL (30.7 to 346.9 mL) per household per week, or 2.6% (0.4% to 4.7%), but sugar decreased by 8.0 g (2.4 to 13.6 g), or 2.7% (0.8% to 4.5%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not increase. Conclusions: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, 1 year after implementation, volume of all soft drinks purchased combined increased by 189 mL, or 2.6% per household per week. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 8 g, or 2.7%, lower per household per week. Further studies should determine whether and how apparently small effect sizes translate into health outcomes. Trial registration number ISRCTN18042742.",

keywords = "nutrition & dietetics, obesity, public health",

author = "Rogers, {Nina T.} and David Pell and Mytton, {Oliver T.} and Penney, {Tarra L.} and Adam Briggs and Steven Cummins and Catrin Jones and Mike Rayner and Harry Rutter and Peter Scarborough and Stephen Sharp and Richard Smith and Martin White and Jean Adams",

note = "Data availability statement: Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The statistical code for the analyses is available from https://github.com/MRC-Epid/SDILEvaluation. Kantar Worldpanel data are not publicly available but can be purchased from Kantar Worldpanel (http://www.kantarworldpanel.com). The authors are not legally permitted to share the data used for this study but interested parties can contact Kantar WorldPanel representative Sean Cannon ([email protected]) to inquire about accessing this proprietary data. The lead author affirms that the manuscript is an honest, accurate and transparent account of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been explained.",

year = "2023",

month = dec,

day = "31",

doi = "10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077059",

language = "English",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy

T2 - a controlled interrupted time series analysis

AU - Rogers, Nina T.

AU - Pell, David

AU - Mytton, Oliver T.

AU - Penney, Tarra L.

AU - Briggs, Adam

AU - Cummins, Steven

AU - Jones, Catrin

AU - Rayner, Mike

AU - Rutter, Harry

AU - Scarborough, Peter

AU - Sharp, Stephen

AU - Smith, Richard

AU - White, Martin

AU - Adams, Jean

N1 - Data availability statement: Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The statistical code for the analyses is available from https://github.com/MRC-Epid/SDILEvaluation. Kantar Worldpanel data are not publicly available but can be purchased from Kantar Worldpanel (http://www.kantarworldpanel.com). The authors are not legally permitted to share the data used for this study but interested parties can contact Kantar WorldPanel representative Sean Cannon ([email protected]) to inquire about accessing this proprietary data. The lead author affirms that the manuscript is an honest, accurate and transparent account of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been explained.

PY - 2023/12/31

Y1 - 2023/12/31

N2 - Objective: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks 1 year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). Design Controlled interrupted time series. Participants: Households reporting their purchasing to a market research company (average weekly n=22 091), March 2014 to March 2019. Intervention A two-tiered tax levied on soft drinks manufacturers, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. Main outcome measures: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol and confectionery purchased per household per week 1 year after implementation. Results: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual, purchased volume of high tier drinks decreased by 140.8 mL (95% CI 104.3 to 177.3 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 37.8% (28.0% to 47.6%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 16.2 g (13.5 to 18.8 g), or 42.6% (35.6% to 49.6%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 170.5 mL (154.5 to 186.5 mL) or 85.8% (77.8% to 93.9%), with an 11.5 g (9.1 to 13.9 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 87.8% (69.2% to 106.4%). When all soft drinks were combined irrespective of levy tier or eligibility, the volume of drinks purchased increased by 188.8 mL (30.7 to 346.9 mL) per household per week, or 2.6% (0.4% to 4.7%), but sugar decreased by 8.0 g (2.4 to 13.6 g), or 2.7% (0.8% to 4.5%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not increase. Conclusions: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, 1 year after implementation, volume of all soft drinks purchased combined increased by 189 mL, or 2.6% per household per week. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 8 g, or 2.7%, lower per household per week. Further studies should determine whether and how apparently small effect sizes translate into health outcomes. Trial registration number ISRCTN18042742.

AB - Objective: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks 1 year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). Design Controlled interrupted time series. Participants: Households reporting their purchasing to a market research company (average weekly n=22 091), March 2014 to March 2019. Intervention A two-tiered tax levied on soft drinks manufacturers, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. Main outcome measures: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol and confectionery purchased per household per week 1 year after implementation. Results: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual, purchased volume of high tier drinks decreased by 140.8 mL (95% CI 104.3 to 177.3 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 37.8% (28.0% to 47.6%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 16.2 g (13.5 to 18.8 g), or 42.6% (35.6% to 49.6%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 170.5 mL (154.5 to 186.5 mL) or 85.8% (77.8% to 93.9%), with an 11.5 g (9.1 to 13.9 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 87.8% (69.2% to 106.4%). When all soft drinks were combined irrespective of levy tier or eligibility, the volume of drinks purchased increased by 188.8 mL (30.7 to 346.9 mL) per household per week, or 2.6% (0.4% to 4.7%), but sugar decreased by 8.0 g (2.4 to 13.6 g), or 2.7% (0.8% to 4.5%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not increase. Conclusions: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, 1 year after implementation, volume of all soft drinks purchased combined increased by 189 mL, or 2.6% per household per week. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 8 g, or 2.7%, lower per household per week. Further studies should determine whether and how apparently small effect sizes translate into health outcomes. Trial registration number ISRCTN18042742.

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AN - SCOPUS:85178851018

SN - 2044-6055

VL - 13

JO - BMJ Open

JF - BMJ Open

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ER -

Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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