Causality between exports, productivity and financial support in European Union agriculture

Regional Studies. The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between exports and productivity and exports and agricultural support within the European Union. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and error correction models, evidence is found of exports within the European Union being determined by support in Ireland and France, as well as gains in productivity contributing to export growth in Germany and the UK. This finding may help explain why some countries within the European Union, such as France, have large agricultural trade surpluses, whilst others run large deficits.