Abstract
A basis for determining and assessing the operational greenhouse gas emissions of buildings (module B6 of a building related LCA) and other impacts on resource depletion and environment already during design is the realistic prognosis of the operational energy demand. Important input variables are the outside temperatures during the heating and cooling periods as well as the thermal comfort requirements of the users. As a result of the already occurring global warming, changes in the local climate will occur at the site of specific buildings. This raises the question of what basis can and should be used to determine the operational energy demand in the future. The presentation and discussion of corresponding possibilities is the subject of this background report.
The report includes the description of the most used techniques for the introduction of global warming expected climate variations within the context of building energy simulation through the downscaling of existing global circulation models’ outputs and the manipulation of existing weather data files. It discusses future provisional assessments of the air temperature variations throughout the current century as well as the analysis of existing literature that estimates potential energy use variation in heating and cooling throughout different climate zones in the world.
The main results highlight an increase in energy use for cooling in all the locations highlight the trend in rising temperatures throughout the globe that may reach up to 4.5 degrees Celsius at the end of the century, if compared to the current situation.
This will have significant implications on the energy use to operate buildings, with severe (up to 40%) increase in cooling energy use by the end of the century and peak power requirements and parallel reductions in heating requirements.
Other consequences may impact traditionally heating dominated countries which may see the rise of cooling requirements, also generating the need for HVAC equipment, actually generating a significant increase not only in energy use during the operation stage, but as well in terms of embodied energy.
As the average buildings’ life cycle is in the range of the climate change time scale, the global warming trend will require innovative and more climate resilient design, with smart solutions, wider use of passive building design, improved urban solutions and planning (i.e. to counteract in-creasing heat island effects) for new buildings as well as for the energy retrofitting of the existing building stock.
It is thus recommended to future-proof buildings designed today with climate change resilient technical solutions as well as through the appropriate use of building energy simulation.
The report includes the description of the most used techniques for the introduction of global warming expected climate variations within the context of building energy simulation through the downscaling of existing global circulation models’ outputs and the manipulation of existing weather data files. It discusses future provisional assessments of the air temperature variations throughout the current century as well as the analysis of existing literature that estimates potential energy use variation in heating and cooling throughout different climate zones in the world.
The main results highlight an increase in energy use for cooling in all the locations highlight the trend in rising temperatures throughout the globe that may reach up to 4.5 degrees Celsius at the end of the century, if compared to the current situation.
This will have significant implications on the energy use to operate buildings, with severe (up to 40%) increase in cooling energy use by the end of the century and peak power requirements and parallel reductions in heating requirements.
Other consequences may impact traditionally heating dominated countries which may see the rise of cooling requirements, also generating the need for HVAC equipment, actually generating a significant increase not only in energy use during the operation stage, but as well in terms of embodied energy.
As the average buildings’ life cycle is in the range of the climate change time scale, the global warming trend will require innovative and more climate resilient design, with smart solutions, wider use of passive building design, improved urban solutions and planning (i.e. to counteract in-creasing heat island effects) for new buildings as well as for the energy retrofitting of the existing building stock.
It is thus recommended to future-proof buildings designed today with climate change resilient technical solutions as well as through the appropriate use of building energy simulation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | IEA EBC Annex 72 Background information |
| Subtitle of host publication | Assessing life cycle related environmental impacts caused by buildings |
| Editors | Rolf Frischknecht, Thomas Lützkendorf, Alexander Passer, Harpa Birgisdottir, Chan-U Chae, Shivakumar Palaniappan, Maria Balouktsi, Freja Nygaard Rasmussen, Martin Rock, Tajda Obrecht, Endrit Hoxha, Marcella Ruschi Mendes Saade |
| Place of Publication | Austria |
| Publisher | Verlag der Technischen Universitat Graz |
| Chapter | F |
| Pages | 303-336 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9783851259537 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Feb 2023 |
