Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland

Aoibheann Brady, Julian Faraway, Ilaria Prosdocimi

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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Abstract

Several large flooding events in recent years have led to increased concerns that climate change may be affecting the risk of flooding. At-site tests assessing whether change can be detected in observed data are not very powerful and cannot fully differentiate between possible confounders. It is also difficult to detect fully climate-driven trends, and separate these from other anthropogenic impacts such as urbanisation. We propose a change in focus from detection only towards both detecting and attributing trends in peak river flows to large-scale climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We focus on a set of near-natural “benchmark” catchments in Ireland in order to detect those non-human driven trends. In order to enhance our ability to detect a signal, we model all stations together in a Bayesian framework which is implemented through Stan.
Original languageEnglish
Pages54-58
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jul 2018
Event International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018 - University of Bristol, Bristol, UK United Kingdom
Duration: 15 Jul 201820 Jul 2018
https://people.maths.bris.ac.uk/~sw15190/IWSM2018/

Conference

Conference International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018
Abbreviated titleIWSM 2018
CountryUK United Kingdom
CityBristol
Period15/07/1820/07/18
Internet address

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peak flow
river flow
flooding
climate
North Atlantic Oscillation
urbanization
catchment
climate change
trend

Cite this

Brady, A., Faraway, J., & Prosdocimi, I. (2018). Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland. 54-58. Paper presented at International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018, Bristol, UK United Kingdom.

Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland. / Brady, Aoibheann; Faraway, Julian; Prosdocimi, Ilaria.

2018. 54-58 Paper presented at International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018, Bristol, UK United Kingdom.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Brady, A, Faraway, J & Prosdocimi, I 2018, 'Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland' Paper presented at International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018, Bristol, UK United Kingdom, 15/07/18 - 20/07/18, pp. 54-58.
Brady A, Faraway J, Prosdocimi I. Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland. 2018. Paper presented at International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018, Bristol, UK United Kingdom.
Brady, Aoibheann ; Faraway, Julian ; Prosdocimi, Ilaria. / Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland. Paper presented at International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018, Bristol, UK United Kingdom.5 p.
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