Attribution of large-scale drivers of peak river flows in Ireland

Aoibheann Brady, Julian Faraway, Ilaria Prosdocimi

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Several large flooding events in recent years have led to increased concerns that climate change may be affecting the risk of flooding. At-site tests assessing whether change can be detected in observed data are not very powerful and cannot fully differentiate between possible confounders. It is also difficult to detect fully climate-driven trends, and separate these from other anthropogenic impacts such as urbanisation. We propose a change in focus from detection only towards both detecting and attributing trends in peak river flows to large-scale climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We focus on a set of near-natural “benchmark” catchments in Ireland in order to detect those non-human driven trends. In order to enhance our ability to detect a signal, we model all stations together in a Bayesian framework which is implemented through Stan.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jul 2018
Event International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018 - University of Bristol, Bristol, UK United Kingdom
Duration: 15 Jul 201820 Jul 2018


Conference International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 2018
Abbreviated titleIWSM 2018
Country/TerritoryUK United Kingdom
Internet address


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