Asymmetric use of information about past and future: Toward a narrative theory of forecasting

Samuel G. B. Johnson, David Tuckett

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Story-telling helps to define the human experience. Do narratives also inform our predictions and choices? The current study provides evidence that they do, using financial decision-making as an example of a domain where, normatively, publicly available information (about the past or the future) is irrelevant. Despite this, participants used past company performance information to project future price trends, as though using affectively laden information to predict the ending of a story. Critically, these projections were stronger when information concerned predictions about a company’s future performance rather than actual data about its past performance, suggesting that people not only rely on financially irrelevant (but narratively relevant) information for making predictions, but erroneously impose temporal order on that information.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
Pages1883-1888
Number of pages6
StatusAccepted/In press - 15 Jul 2018

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narrative
performance
available information
projection
decision making
trend
evidence
experience

Cite this

Johnson, S. G. B., & Tuckett, D. (Accepted/In press). Asymmetric use of information about past and future: Toward a narrative theory of forecasting. In Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1883-1888)

Asymmetric use of information about past and future: Toward a narrative theory of forecasting. / Johnson, Samuel G. B. ; Tuckett, David.

Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. 2018. p. 1883-1888.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Johnson, SGB & Tuckett, D 2018, Asymmetric use of information about past and future: Toward a narrative theory of forecasting. in Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. pp. 1883-1888.
Johnson SGB, Tuckett D. Asymmetric use of information about past and future: Toward a narrative theory of forecasting. In Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. 2018. p. 1883-1888
Johnson, Samuel G. B. ; Tuckett, David. / Asymmetric use of information about past and future: Toward a narrative theory of forecasting. Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. 2018. pp. 1883-1888
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