This note aims to investigate the price dynamics between Ukrainian feed wheat exports and U.S. maize exports employing the method by Enders and Siklos (2001) to allow for threshold adjustment. The analysis reveals slow amounts of adjustment towards equilibrium for a positive change in the equilibrium relationship, but a substantial amount of adjustment for a negative change in the equilibrium relationship. This would imply that Ukrainian prices would have to decrease at a faster rate in order to retain their market share. The fact that there is some evidence of asymmetric price adjustment is not surprising given that Ukraine is a minor exporter in relation to the U.S. and that policy intervention exists in the Ukrainian wheat market. The nature of price dynamics sheds light on how Ukraine has been strategically responding to U.S. maize exports since the mid 1990s.
|Number of pages||8|
|Publication status||Published - 2008|