Arsenic and Fertility: Evidence from the 1900 English Beer-Poisoning Epidemic

Jonathan James

doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101772

Arsenic and Fertility: Evidence from the 1900 English Beer-Poisoning Epidemic

Jonathan James

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Abstract

In 1900, thousands of people in England were poisoned by arsenic. The source was beer contaminated by tainted sugar. This paper examines how the poisoning affected birth rates in the affected areas, using an event study difference-in-difference design. The results show that the arsenic-in-beer epidemic caused a 10% drop in births in 1901, but the effect was short-lived. After about 28 weeks, birth rates returned to pre-epidemic levels. Evidence from the timing of the effect and a range of alternative mechanisms is most consistent with the epidemic reducing conceptions or early pregnancies, rather than operating through economic disruption or later gestational harm.

Original language	English
Article number	101772
Journal	Explorations in Economic History
Volume	101
Early online date	24 Jun 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101772
Publication status	Published - 27 Jun 2026

Data Availability Statement

Data and code to replicate the tables and figures can be found here: https://doi.org/10.3886/E249858V1.

Keywords

Arsenic
Difference-in-differences
Fertility
Health shocks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

History
Economics and Econometrics

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10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101772Licence: CC BY

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Cite this

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abstract = "In 1900, thousands of people in England were poisoned by arsenic. The source was beer contaminated by tainted sugar. This paper examines how the poisoning affected birth rates in the affected areas, using an event study difference-in-difference design. The results show that the arsenic-in-beer epidemic caused a 10\% drop in births in 1901, but the effect was short-lived. After about 28 weeks, birth rates returned to pre-epidemic levels. Evidence from the timing of the effect and a range of alternative mechanisms is most consistent with the epidemic reducing conceptions or early pregnancies, rather than operating through economic disruption or later gestational harm.",

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N2 - In 1900, thousands of people in England were poisoned by arsenic. The source was beer contaminated by tainted sugar. This paper examines how the poisoning affected birth rates in the affected areas, using an event study difference-in-difference design. The results show that the arsenic-in-beer epidemic caused a 10% drop in births in 1901, but the effect was short-lived. After about 28 weeks, birth rates returned to pre-epidemic levels. Evidence from the timing of the effect and a range of alternative mechanisms is most consistent with the epidemic reducing conceptions or early pregnancies, rather than operating through economic disruption or later gestational harm.

AB - In 1900, thousands of people in England were poisoned by arsenic. The source was beer contaminated by tainted sugar. This paper examines how the poisoning affected birth rates in the affected areas, using an event study difference-in-difference design. The results show that the arsenic-in-beer epidemic caused a 10% drop in births in 1901, but the effect was short-lived. After about 28 weeks, birth rates returned to pre-epidemic levels. Evidence from the timing of the effect and a range of alternative mechanisms is most consistent with the epidemic reducing conceptions or early pregnancies, rather than operating through economic disruption or later gestational harm.

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KW - Difference-in-differences

KW - Fertility

KW - Health shocks

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DO - 10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101772

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JO - Explorations in Economic History

JF - Explorations in Economic History

M1 - 101772

ER -

Arsenic and Fertility: Evidence from the 1900 English Beer-Poisoning Epidemic

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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