Are modellers literate? - Studying the relation between literacy of building modellers and the performance gap

One of the most discussed issues in the design community is the performance gap. In this research, we investigate whether part of the gap might be caused by the modelling literacy of design teams. 108 building modellers were asked to comment on the importance of obtaining and using accurate values for 21 common modelling input variables, when estimating annual energy demand by dynamic simulation. The questioning was based on a real domestic dwelling for which high resolution energy data had been recorded. A sensitivity analysis was then conducted using a model of the building by alternating one parameter in each simulation. The effect of each alteration on the annual energy consumption was found and a ranked list generated. The order of this list was then compared to that given by the modellers for the same changes in the parameters. A spearman-ranking value of 0.43 was found and an R value of 0.28, which indicates little correlation between which variables were thought to be important and which proved to be. In addition, there was no correlation between modellers, with many ranking some parameters as important that other thought irrelevant. Using a three-part definition of literacy it is concluded that this sample of modellers, and by implication the population of building modellers, cannot be considered literate. This suggests an opportunity and need for both industry and universities to increase their efforts with respect to building physics education, and if this is done, a part of the performance gap could be closed.