Abstract

In this paper, we perform a careful analysis of the forced PP04 model for climate change, in particular the behaviour of the ice ages. This system models the transition from a glacial to an inter-glacial state through a sudden release of oceanic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This process can be cast in terms of a Filippov dynamical system, with a discontinuous change in its dynamics related to the carbon dioxide release. By using techniques from the theory of non-smooth dynamical systems, we give an analysis of this model in the cases of both no insolation forcing and also periodic insolation forcing. This reveals a rich, and novel, dynamical structure to the solutions of the PP04 model. In particular, we see synchronized periodic solutions with subtle regions of existence which depend on the amplitude and frequency of the forcing. The orbits can be created/destroyed in both smooth and discontinuity-induced bifurcations. We study both the orbits and the transitions between them and make comparisons with actual climate dynamics.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)76-120
JournalIMA Journal of Applied Mathematics
Volume86
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 25 Jan 2021

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