Agricultural shocks and riots: A disaggregated analysis

C Almer, Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti, Manuel Oechslin

Research output: Working paper / PreprintWorking paper

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Every year, riots cause a substantial number of fatalities in less-advanced countries. This paper explores the role of agricultural output shocks in explaining riots. Our theory predicts a negative relationship between the level of rioting and the deviation of the actual output from the average one. Relying on monthly data at the cell level (0.5×0.5 degrees), and using a drought index to proxy for output shocks, our empirical analysis confirms such a negative relationship for Sub-Saharan Africa: A one-standard-deviation decrease in the drought index rises the likelihood of a riot in a given cell and month by 8.4 percent. The use of highly disaggregated data accounts for the fact that riots are temporally and geographically confined events.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBath, U. K.
PublisherUniversity of Bath Department of Economics
Publication statusPublished - 4 Sept 2014

Publication series

NameBath Economics Research Working Papers


  • Conflict
  • social unrest
  • economic shocks
  • disaggregated analysis


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