A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa

Christina J. Edholm; Benjamin Levy; Lee Spence; Folashade B. Agusto; Faraimunashe Chirove; C. William Chukwu; David Goldsman; Moatlhodi Kgosimore; Innocent Maposa; Jane White; Suzanne Lenhart

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.06.002

A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa

Christina J. Edholm, Benjamin Levy, Lee Spence, Folashade B. Agusto, Faraimunashe Chirove, C. William Chukwu, David Goldsman, Moatlhodi Kgosimore, Innocent Maposa, Jane White, Suzanne Lenhart

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection, and we investigate these strategies in early-stage outbreak dynamics. The rate of disease spread in South Africa varied over time as individuals changed behavior in response to the ongoing pandemic and to changing government policies. Using a system of ordinary differential equations, we model the outbreak in the province of Gauteng, assuming that several parameters vary over time. Analyzing data from the time period before vaccination gives the approximate dates of parameter changes, and those dates are linked to government policies. Unknown parameters are then estimated from available
case data and used to assess the impact of each policy. Looking forward in time, possible scenarios give projections involving the implementation of two different vaccines at varying times. Our results quantify the impact of different government policies and demonstrate how vaccinations can alter infection spread.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	333-345
Number of pages	13
Journal	Infectious Disease Modelling
Volume	7
Issue number	3
Early online date	4 Jul 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.06.002
Publication status	Published - 30 Sept 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation , grant number 134651 , to the MASAMU Advanced Study Institute. FBA was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant number DMS 2028297 . CJE was supported by the AMS-Simons Travel Grants, which are administered by the American Mathematical Society with support from the Simons Foundation . FC was supported by the University of Johanneburg URC Grant. We want to thank Professor Inger Fabris-Rotelli for her input on some explanations.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

COVID-19
Gauteng
ODE epidemiology Model
Parameter estimation
South Africa
Vaccination

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics

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10.1016/j.idm.2022.06.002Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

South_Africa_COVID_Vaccination_Model (8)

Cite this

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abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection, and we investigate these strategies in early-stage outbreak dynamics. The rate of disease spread in South Africa varied over time as individuals changed behavior in response to the ongoing pandemic and to changing government policies. Using a system of ordinary differential equations, we model the outbreak in the province of Gauteng, assuming that several parameters vary over time. Analyzing data from the time period before vaccination gives the approximate dates of parameter changes, and those dates are linked to government policies. Unknown parameters are then estimated from available case data and used to assess the impact of each policy. Looking forward in time, possible scenarios give projections involving the implementation of two different vaccines at varying times. Our results quantify the impact of different government policies and demonstrate how vaccinations can alter infection spread.",

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AU - David Goldsman

AU - Moatlhodi Kgosimore

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A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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