A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda

Cameron Allen; Shirin Malekpour; Nina Weitz; Therese Bennich; Matteo Pedercini; Ambuj  Sagar; David Griggs; Rob Raven; Yixian Sun; Prajal Pradhan; Carole-Anne Sénit; Anne-Sophie Stevance; Julia Leininger; Guillaume Lafortune; Andrea Ordóñez  Llanos; Sinji Onoda; Gabriela Fernando; Alex Lechner; Avvari Mohan; Ting Guan; Tahl Kestin; Anthony Capon; Måns Nilson

doi:10.1126/science.adz5704

A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda

Cameron Allen, Shirin Malekpour, Nina Weitz, Therese Bennich, Matteo Pedercini, Ambuj Sagar, David Griggs, Rob Raven, Yixian Sun, Prajal Pradhan, Carole-Anne Sénit, Anne-Sophie Stevance, Julia Leininger, Guillaume Lafortune, Andrea Ordóñez Llanos, Sinji Onoda, Gabriela Fernando, Alex Lechner, Avvari Mohan, Ting GuanTahl Kestin, Anthony Capon, Måns Nilson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

As the 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs) nears and progress remains limited, researchers are proposing measuresto enhance the next, post-2030, agenda to improve implementation (1–3). Withmore proposals expected in future, we argue for a systematic approach to helpresearchers and policy-makers design and assess them. This requires a theory ofchange that explains how and why proposals will improve implementation of thenext agenda, while also considering their political feasibility. We start byconstructing an implicit theory of change underpinning the current 2030 Agenda(4) to revisit how the SDGs were intended to work and identify key successesand failures. We then propose an approach for assessing proposals put forwardto improve the post-2030 agenda on the basis of their impact and feasibility. A better approach is needed to assess potential impact and feasibility of proposals.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	241-244
Number of pages	4
Journal	Science
Volume	391
Issue number	6782
Early online date	15 Jan 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adz5704
Publication status	Published - 15 Jan 2026

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10.1126/science.adz5704

Allen et al 2026 Science (accepted author manuscript)Accepted author manuscript, 712 KBLicence: CC BY

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Allen, C., Malekpour, S., Weitz, N., Bennich, T., Pedercini, M., Sagar, A., Griggs, D., Raven, R., Sun, Y., Pradhan, P., Sénit, C.-A., Stevance, A.-S., Leininger, J., Lafortune, G., Llanos, A. O., Onoda, S., Fernando, G., Lechner, A., Mohan, A., ... Nilson, M. (2026). A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda. Science, 391(6782), 241-244. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adz5704

Allen, C, Malekpour, S, Weitz, N, Bennich, T, Pedercini, M, Sagar, A, Griggs, D, Raven, R, Sun, Y, Pradhan, P, Sénit, C-A, Stevance, A-S, Leininger, J, Lafortune, G, Llanos, AO, Onoda, S, Fernando, G, Lechner, A, Mohan, A, Guan, T, Kestin, T, Capon, A & Nilson, M 2026, 'A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda', Science, vol. 391, no. 6782, pp. 241-244. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adz5704

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title = "A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda",

abstract = "As the 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs) nears and progress remains limited, researchers are proposing measuresto enhance the next, post-2030, agenda to improve implementation (1–3). Withmore proposals expected in future, we argue for a systematic approach to helpresearchers and policy-makers design and assess them. This requires a theory ofchange that explains how and why proposals will improve implementation of thenext agenda, while also considering their political feasibility. We start byconstructing an implicit theory of change underpinning the current 2030 Agenda(4) to revisit how the SDGs were intended to work and identify key successesand failures. We then propose an approach for assessing proposals put forwardto improve the post-2030 agenda on the basis of their impact and feasibility. A better approach is needed to assess potential impact and feasibility of proposals.",

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AU - Sagar, Ambuj

AU - Griggs, David

AU - Raven, Rob

AU - Sun, Yixian

AU - Pradhan, Prajal

AU - Sénit, Carole-Anne

AU - Stevance, Anne-Sophie

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AU - Lafortune, Guillaume

AU - Llanos, Andrea Ordóñez

AU - Onoda, Sinji

AU - Fernando, Gabriela

AU - Lechner, Alex

AU - Mohan, Avvari

AU - Guan, Ting

AU - Kestin, Tahl

AU - Capon, Anthony

AU - Nilson, Måns

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A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda

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