A simulation modelling study using empirical data to help improve COVID-19 vaccination centre operation

Vaccinating the entire population is widely considered to offer the main route out of the COVID-19 pandemic. For many countries, dedicated vaccination centres are a key part of that effort. However, with no directly comparable historical experience there is little information to guide the operational configuration and management of these operations. In addressing this gap in knowledge, the objective of this study is to demonstrate the value of computer modelling. This is achieved through providing an account of its use in supporting management considerations and decisions at two major vaccination centres, at an early stage of the vaccination effort in the UK. We report on how modelling insight has influenced the initial setup of one site, including quantification of daily booking numbers. For the same site, we reveal how analysis has informed a significant operational shift in combining two key activities on the vaccination pathway into one. Finally, we describe how, at a second site, modelling has been used to examine pathway stability, in terms of resilience to unforeseen ‘shocks’ such as delayed arrivals and staff unavailability. Alongside the open-source simulation software, the modelling insights reported here can support managers in their effort to continuously improve the operation of COVID-19 vaccination centres.