This paper describes the approach that we implemented for producing the point forecasts and prediction intervals for our M4-competition submission. The proposed simple combination of univariate models (SCUM) is a median combination of the point forecasts and prediction intervals of four models, namely exponential smoothing, complex exponential smoothing, automatic autoregressive integrated moving average and dynamic optimised theta. Our submission performed very well in the M4-competition, being ranked 6 th for the point forecasts (with a small difference compared to the 2 nd submission) and prediction intervals and 2 nd and 3 rd for the point forecasts of the weekly and quarterly data respectively.
- Complex exponential smoothing
- Median combination
- Theta method
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Business and International Management
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- Management - Professor
- Information, Decisions & Operations - Chair in Management Science; Director of Studies MSc in Operations, Logistics & Supply Chain Management
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