A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Andrzej Kijko

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

35 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis. In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll's (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding 5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran's paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)577-593
Number of pages17
JournalNatural Hazards
Volume56
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Mar 2011

Keywords

  • Indian Ocean
  • Makran subduction zone (MSZ)
  • Numerical modeling
  • Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA)
  • Seismic hazard analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this