Reliability analysis of large power networks requires accurate aggregate models of low voltage (LV) networks to allow for reasonable calculation complexity and to prevent long computational times. However, commonly used lumped load models neglect the differences in spatial distribution of demand, type of phase-connection of served customers and implemented protection system components (e.g., single-pole vs three-pole). This paper proposes a novel use of state enumeration (SE) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) techniques to formulate more accurate LV network reliability equivalents. The combined SE and MCS method is illustrated using a generic suburban LV test network, which is realistically represented by a reduced number of system states. This approach allows for a much faster and more accurate reliability assessments, where further reduction of system states results in a single-component equivalent reliability model with the same unavailability as the original LV network. Both mean values and probability distributions of standard reliability indices are calculated, where errors associated with the use of single-line models, as opposed to more detailed three-phase models, are quantified.

Original languageEnglish
Article number101437
JournalSustainable Energy, Grids and Networks
Early online date3 Jun 2024
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 3 Jun 2024

Data Availability Statement

Data will be made available on request.


  • Aggregation
  • Low voltage
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Reliability equivalent
  • State enumeration
  • Unavailability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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